Some interesting points and recognition of trends that others don’t discuss. One important one is how much the US is making from IP and technology. You just have to see how fiercely the US fights digital taxes on social media. The thing is that these revenues are fragile and the rest of the world could easily replace Facebook, Google and the like.
I would also highlight aging infrastructure in the West. A lot of old infrastructure needs major rehab or replacement. There isn’t much money for that.
We’ll have to see how future generations react to trends. What happens when Third World countries with large diasporas face crises? There could be a takeover as you say, but on the other hand there may not be much worth taking over.
One caveat: no one knows the future, and we might see some radical event or development that alters everything. Although nuclear war is not rational, wars can happen because otherwise-rational people miscalculate how their opponents will react, and things can escalate: witness the Germans, who, twice in the 20th Century, ended up fighting America, Britain, France and Russia at the same time.
On the positive side, maybe instead of fusion bombs, we'll finally get economic fusion reactors. But in the meantime, Twilight Patriot's advice about becoming as self-sustaining as possible, and doing it with others, should be obvious to anyone who keeps up with world developments and knows a bit of history.
Addendum: I will agree with you however that the MOU won’t be implemented for the simple reason that (1) Israel will scuttle it, (2) Iran will simply grab the money and continue the blockade and (3) America isn’t quite “there yet”
(1) and (2) are just straightforward… by (3) I simply mean that the civic religion of the invincible 40 year old heroin addict homeless tier one operator killing 1,000 Iranians in his sleep… that cultural delusion prevents any such humiliating peace… so the terms will have to get much worse (and they will over July, August, September & beyond)… until America is unilaterally evicted from the region in full.
So yes, in that sense… this Drumpf signing at the Versailles of such a humiliating set of terms… “doesn’t really mean much since the pie hasn’t been eaten yet”… it’s just that these June terms are gonna be a godsend for the Americans compared to what’s in store in the not to distant future! 🤭😊
The death toll numbers you’re talking about are from CENTCOM who (if we’re being polite) have a less than stellar record at speaking the truth.
As for your claim that “oil isn’t important” and more of it will soon be found… even if I gave you a magic wand and you waved it all into existence, you’ve not solved the key issue… which is that the world economy runs on stocks and flows.
(Btw, nothing larger than the Saudi deposits have ever been found for oil at the right sulphur content and API for industrial society… so there’s that inductive argument against your view!)
If I stay underwater for 5 minutes, I will run out of oxygen to breathe and drown… the fact that there’s lots of oxygen around isn’t what kills me, it’s the *lack of oxygen then & there*… in fact, Drumpf (in his senility! 😆) even admitted that the humiliating memo was signed due to oil stocks running low.
As for your argument that the Iranians will open the straits… well, it will be under their management & in that sense “it’s open”… but (as Goldman Sachs and others note) that just means no oil for “unfriendly” states for the next several decades.
Your position (namely Iranian capitulation to American control of the global commons) has been dismissed by not just Kagan et al but basically every internationalist pro empire thinker out there.
The reason? None of them see America retaining that control of said commons past this decade, & in fact all agree that this defeat is so back breaking that America will have to retreat to its “fortress”… which itself isn’t really much of one if we check ancillary variables like finances, civic cohesion, functioning of the state, etc.
You’re overpricing American power and coercion at the interval when people who’ve defended the empire for decades are just flat out admitting to Complete Defeat & the ascension of Iran at the global stage… there’s not much going for you on that front, since these guys have already written the obituary, to which only a handful of meek protests remain all while the numbers are pretty ironclad.
Some interesting points and recognition of trends that others don’t discuss. One important one is how much the US is making from IP and technology. You just have to see how fiercely the US fights digital taxes on social media. The thing is that these revenues are fragile and the rest of the world could easily replace Facebook, Google and the like.
I would also highlight aging infrastructure in the West. A lot of old infrastructure needs major rehab or replacement. There isn’t much money for that.
We’ll have to see how future generations react to trends. What happens when Third World countries with large diasporas face crises? There could be a takeover as you say, but on the other hand there may not be much worth taking over.
Sadly, this essay seems right on the money to me.
One caveat: no one knows the future, and we might see some radical event or development that alters everything. Although nuclear war is not rational, wars can happen because otherwise-rational people miscalculate how their opponents will react, and things can escalate: witness the Germans, who, twice in the 20th Century, ended up fighting America, Britain, France and Russia at the same time.
On the positive side, maybe instead of fusion bombs, we'll finally get economic fusion reactors. But in the meantime, Twilight Patriot's advice about becoming as self-sustaining as possible, and doing it with others, should be obvious to anyone who keeps up with world developments and knows a bit of history.
Addendum: I will agree with you however that the MOU won’t be implemented for the simple reason that (1) Israel will scuttle it, (2) Iran will simply grab the money and continue the blockade and (3) America isn’t quite “there yet”
(1) and (2) are just straightforward… by (3) I simply mean that the civic religion of the invincible 40 year old heroin addict homeless tier one operator killing 1,000 Iranians in his sleep… that cultural delusion prevents any such humiliating peace… so the terms will have to get much worse (and they will over July, August, September & beyond)… until America is unilaterally evicted from the region in full.
So yes, in that sense… this Drumpf signing at the Versailles of such a humiliating set of terms… “doesn’t really mean much since the pie hasn’t been eaten yet”… it’s just that these June terms are gonna be a godsend for the Americans compared to what’s in store in the not to distant future! 🤭😊
The death toll numbers you’re talking about are from CENTCOM who (if we’re being polite) have a less than stellar record at speaking the truth.
As for your claim that “oil isn’t important” and more of it will soon be found… even if I gave you a magic wand and you waved it all into existence, you’ve not solved the key issue… which is that the world economy runs on stocks and flows.
(Btw, nothing larger than the Saudi deposits have ever been found for oil at the right sulphur content and API for industrial society… so there’s that inductive argument against your view!)
If I stay underwater for 5 minutes, I will run out of oxygen to breathe and drown… the fact that there’s lots of oxygen around isn’t what kills me, it’s the *lack of oxygen then & there*… in fact, Drumpf (in his senility! 😆) even admitted that the humiliating memo was signed due to oil stocks running low.
As for your argument that the Iranians will open the straits… well, it will be under their management & in that sense “it’s open”… but (as Goldman Sachs and others note) that just means no oil for “unfriendly” states for the next several decades.
Your position (namely Iranian capitulation to American control of the global commons) has been dismissed by not just Kagan et al but basically every internationalist pro empire thinker out there.
The reason? None of them see America retaining that control of said commons past this decade, & in fact all agree that this defeat is so back breaking that America will have to retreat to its “fortress”… which itself isn’t really much of one if we check ancillary variables like finances, civic cohesion, functioning of the state, etc.
You’re overpricing American power and coercion at the interval when people who’ve defended the empire for decades are just flat out admitting to Complete Defeat & the ascension of Iran at the global stage… there’s not much going for you on that front, since these guys have already written the obituary, to which only a handful of meek protests remain all while the numbers are pretty ironclad.